NFL 2010 Season Week 2 Picks

Grant out for week 2. How is there only 1 backup halfback on the roster along with only 2 QBs? Must be 20 DBs or something.

Harrell is out forever too.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5568171

Jets upset the pats, and the colts come back from a humiliating loss to the texans, against family blood. Green Bay should handily win it, and the cowboys will win it by 10.

Week One isn't even over yet.

I've already made my picks through week 6, with inside knowledge of who's injured and who hot after week 5.

Who the f*@# is Harrell?

For reference....ah memories

Harrell is hurt? That isn't news!

Has Ted Thompson made a good draft pick yet? Besides Clay Matthews Jr and maybe some other guys.

I imagine if you rule out counting any of his good picks, then no he hasn't made any good picks.

that Rodgers guy might be good some day I suppose.

Overall the draft picks haven't been too bad, but Harrell is a grade A bust.


2 AFC games, one of which no one cares about, and the other of which has 100 penalties and 1 TD through 3 quarters? It's pretty much over.

Ouch. Grant is having surgery, will be out 10-12 weeks, possibly the season. Losing the only running back in the top 30 in the league in yards not to fumble last season* is going to hurt, especially since the Packers have basically 0 experience behind him.

Slight correction, he fumbled once, but it was on a reception, not a rushing attempt. I jumped the gun a little boasting about that stat.

I think the Packers will be fine. I know this will just sound like the Viking fan in me talking, but I think Grant is one of the most overrated players in the league.

For starters because the RB position as a whole is probably fairly overrated, when in reality it's one of the easiest positions to plug someone in at.

A huge reason Grant hit it big, imo, was because he was plugged in at a time in the season when it was firmly established "you have to stop Favre and whatever else happens, happens, " and the Packers have since been a "stop our passing attack, bitches" offense under Rodgers as well.

Grant also gets virtually every carry/play, where as other teams have a platoon and/or goalline guy. Which help inflate his numbers over the competition.

He certainly hasn't done poorly, and obviously some running backs are better than others, but I think a lot of his success is circumstance as much as anything.

In other words, if you were to give Brandon Jackson 270 carries over the rest of the season, I don't think he'd be much off the ~1100 yards you'd expect.

I'm not sure which Brandon Jackson you've been watching. His ball security is noticeably worse than Grant's (so he might get the yards but with +5 turnovers) and he hasn't at all lived up to the expectations for him. He hasn't had many chances either, but he hasn't shown that he deserved more. Which isn't to say that Grant is a top 3 back or anything, but he is above average. Plus losing him means that #2 is now #1 and #3 (who is a fullback) is now #2 so there's the injury chain reaction to take into account. There's a reason Grant was getting virtually every carry/play, and as you somewhat correctly alluded too, it was less about how awesome he was and more about the lack of any depth pushing him for touches.

This entire quote is what was running through my head as I was driving, and I was racing home to get it on the Can but apparently you beat me to it. Yes he probably got the yards because he was given all the carries, but that should say something about the depth, which is what I am worried about. Brandon Jackson is noticeably slower than Grant too, and because he has a fumbling problem, he runs with two hands on the ball even in the open field. That being said, the Packers don't need a flashy running back because the pass is where they are going to kill you, but with no running game, teams can focus more on stopping Rodgers more.

And as far as "one of the most overrated players", I never really heard much hype about Grant. So how can he be overrated if he isn't rated that highly to begin with. He was 7th in the league in rushing last year, but is overall an adequate RB, imo.

Well fine, by "Brandon Jackson" I meant, "anyone they hand the ball to that often." The league is full of running backs who were disappointing and then went on to have moderate success, and it's usually because they wound up in a "this team has no choice but to give me carries" situation. Adrian Peterson doesn't average 5ish yards per carry because he routinely gets 5 yards. He does it by going 2, 3, 8, -1, 4, -1, 2, 20. You keep feeding him and he'll eventually the yards come, and I imagine most running games are that way. There are lots of games where we're in the stands all thinking "Kind of a quiet day by Adrian today" and then they put up his numbers and he's at 125 yards.

The running game is sort of a delayed satisfaction, and I think people often write off a back who doesn't bust one in his first 10 carries, or have a 100 yards in his first couple games, and "crown" guys that do, and then it becomes sort of a self fulfilling prophecy from there.

Edit: Also, don't get me wrong, this is a blow to the team, if for no other reason than, as you said, it's that much less depth on the team. I just don't expect the Packers and Lions to battle over last place, just because Grant got hurt. This isn't Rodgers getting hurt.

And the Packers play two relatively week teams in their next 2 games, so maybe it'll give him a chance to break in a little bit.

edit: I was going to make some fun, sarcastic comment about how your made up rushing numbers only added up to 4.6 yards per carry, but then I saw your "5ish" reference and figured that 4.6 falls in the realm of 5ish. #burnfail.

I'm not sure if it's entirely relevant, but Ryan Grant rushed 8 times for 45 yards before getting hurt (5.6 avg). Jackson then rushed 18 times for only 63 yards against the exact same defense (3.5 avg). That's quite possibly what we are in for.

But that 5.6 would have regressed. The 3.5 was over more carries, and while not stellar, isn't terrible. Grant got 39 of those yards on 3 carries, he got 6 yards on the 5 prior to that.

perhaps. The fact is, they had a 2 time 1200 yard rusher who wasn't spectacular by any means, but he did the job they needed him to do and he was apparently the only one on the team capable of doing it otherwise other players would have gotten more reps. It's likely that he will fill in adequately, but it is a big question mark now when before, even if Grant was overrated, you knew what you had back there.

Being that Grant wasn't spectacular (and Jackson actually was the 3rd down back, so that could be an indication of things), the margin isn't very big. In other words, if Jackson only gets 1000 yards, it would seem not to be that drastic of a let down. The big thing is simply that now teams may be able to focus on the passing attack more.

In even more other words, going from Grant to Jackson, while being a drop off, probably won't be that big of a drop off. The Packers are a pass first, run second team.

It's not



This is probably comparable to Packer fans under the age of 25 not knowing what it's like to have a crappy QB. "Oh Rodgers has 300 yards? I'd hardly noticed"



Yes, it is many times less worse than Rodgers getting hurt. But for another time in a scarily short span I agree with Scott's thoughts about teams keying in on the passing game now and making the Packers prove they can still rush. Rodgers was sacked 3 times last week and the line didn't look as good as I was hoping it would.

I know they signed some guy that no ones ever heard of off the Falcon's practice squad and they have some other guy that no ones ever heard of coming off of the PUP in a few weeks, but I'd really like to see them go and get one of the veteran guys that are available. Or make a trade. Besides just generally not seeming to be as good as Grant, Jackson has had his own issues staying healthy.

Forgot to mention that 3.5 is fairly terrible. Only 3 teams averaged 3.5 yds/a or less last season (which yes is over more carries, but Jackson's potential to improve his average doesn't change the fact that it is so far not good). Packers had 4.3, Vikings had 4.1

Ironically enough, though, is that Jackson was the number run running back a few years back, got hurt, and the Packers traded for Ryan Grant who then took over. Now Grant is hurt and Jackson is taking back over.

Sure, but 3.5 over that few of carries can turn into ~4 with a couple big runs, which one could argue be just happened to not get. A mode of about 3.5 is probably decent.

My whole original point was largely that teams already ARE keying the passing game, which is what led to a lot of Grant's success. If teams keyed on it "more," whatever that would even mean, that would just make it that much easier to run. Jackson is also supposedly a good pass blocker/blitz-picker-upper, so maybe that will help the passing game too.

Shaun Hill 35/42 382 yds 3 tds 0 ints
Jahvid Best 23 car 184 yds 2 tds 0 fmbl

Woot! Go Lions! I hate living close to Philly...

really though... I hope it is a close game :'(

Not sure if this was mentioned above, but apparently there's a trade rumor going around.... AJ Hawk for Marshawn Lynch. Thoughts?

I suspect it's a completely unfounded rumor, and I would be about 0 excited to pickup Lynch. Maybe 1.

Hawk is now selling his house. At the very least there's too smoke for it to be "unfounded"

ESPN rumors says that Bills say that they're not even looking to move Lynch. And they make a good point that the Packers are not in a hurry to make that type of trade until seeing what Jackson can do as the starter for a full game.

Hawk probably just figures the writing is on the wall given his lack of playing time. Doesn't mean there's any truth to this particular trade rumor.

Well, they play each other this week, so a trade prior to that was always out of the question. (Lynch could fairly easily step in, even on this short of notice, Hawk wouldn't help them at all.)

Teams denying it doesn't mean anything either.

Obviously it could not happen, but this is more than a "completely unfounded rumor."

Jeremy only makes picks for some games. He leaves the easy ones to the rest of us apparently.

Clay Matthews if a freaking beast. The Packers did struggle at running back, Brandon Jackson averaged about 3 yards a carry: terrible. Dominating win, Vikings lose. Packers 2-0, Vikings 0-2.

Safe to assume the pack will win the division? Bears let the cowboys make 400 yds of offense, i dont see that stopping a packers offense...

The Vikings' offense is all sorts of awful, but I think the worst part about the 0-2 start is the fact that if the offense played 5% better, even while still being pretty awful, they would be 2-0. I don't know if that's reason to be hopeful, or a reason to be pissed. The offense didn't light the world on fire for a couple weeks last year either, they just got an extended preseason with opening against the Browns and Lions.

And no, it's not "safe to assume" anything, it's week 2, the Vikings lost to the Super Bowl Champs, and an AFC team.

That said, this season has had doom written on it for a long time.

Yeah, the running game was pretty sad.

I was getting annoyed with the play calling on their first drive of the third quarter. I swear they were trying to get into 3rd down situations so Rodgers could pad his 3rd down stats.

1st and 10 at BUF 39 (Shotgun) A.Rodgers right end to BUF 38 for 1 yard (M.Stroud, B.Scott).
2nd and 9 at BUF 38 J.Kuhn left end to BUF 36 for 2 yards (J.Byrd).
3rd and 7 at BUF 36 (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep left to G.Jennings to BUF 19 for 17 yards (L.McKelvin).
1st and 10 at BUF 19 A.Rodgers pass short middle to J.Nelson to BUF 8 for 11 yards (C.Kelsay).
1st and 8 at BUF 8 B.Jackson left tackle to BUF 6 for 2 yards (A.Davis, R.Torbor).
2nd and 6 at BUF 6 (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Lee to BUF 7 for -1 yards (K.Williams).
3rd and 7 at BUF 7 (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [C.Kelsay].

I don't remember for sure but I assume the Rodgers run for a yard wasn't designed, so whatever on that one. That leaves 2 rushes for 4 yards, a pass to a tight end for -1 yard, and 3-3 on passes to wide receivers for 37 yards and a TD! I get that sometimes you have to mix it up just for the sake of mixing it up, but air it out repeatedly when the defense shows no indication of being able to stop you. The next drive they passed on 1st down twice and on 2nd down thrice (Rodgers ran it in off a pass play) and marched right down the field for a TD without even having a 3rd down.

1st and 10 at GB 36 J.Kuhn up the middle to GB 43 for 7 yards (D.Edwards, D.Whitner).
2nd and 3 at GB 43 A.Rodgers pass short left to J.Nelson pushed ob at BUF 42 for 15 yards (L.McKelvin).
1st and 10 at BUF 42 A.Rodgers pass short right to J.Finley to BUF 20 for 22 yards (F.Jackson).
1st and 10 at BUF 20 J.Kuhn right guard to BUF 17 for 3 yards (D.Edwards).
2nd and 7 at BUF 17 A.Rodgers pass short left to B.Jackson to BUF 7 for 10 yards (A.Davis, D.Whitner).
1st and 7 at BUF 7 (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to J.Jones to BUF 5 for 2 yards (L.McKelvin). FUMBLES (L.McKelvin), recovered by GB-B.Jackson at BUF 9. B.Jackson to BUF 9 for no gain (B.Scott).
2nd and 9 at BUF 9 (Shotgun) A.Rodgers right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

DO THIS MORE OFTEN

A. Rodgers and J. Best on my fantasy team... LOVE IT!

man... I was kidding, but I was pretty close...


Detroit C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT RATING
Hill 25/45 335 7.4 2 2 75.7

Detroit CAR REC YDS TD
Best 17 9 232 3

All I can say about the QB problem in philly is VICK, VICK, VICK !!!!! Why does everyone see that Vick is better than Kolb except Andy Reid ? This sounds bad but I hope Kolb gets a season ending injury in this next game. I don't know why but I just don't like that dude and I never wanted him to be our starting QB. I could understand Andy Reid's point last season with Mcnabb at QB but this season too, come on man how are you gonna make a star QB play 2nd string. I hope andy pulls his head out his ass and does what he should with Vick because if he doesn't I really don't see him as a Eagle next year and we will be stuck with a shitty QB, it don't matter what weapons you got if the QB sucks ass. Kolb just don't fit in with our offence at all and I think Vick could be better than Mcnabb. Even the team seems to like Vick better as do the people from NFL Network.

And once Vick has a bad week Eagles fans will be calling for his head and wondering why Andy Reid didn't keep Kolb in and develop him for the future. Trust me, I live close enough to Philly to know how the fans act. Most ridiculous fans ever...

Good Job on the Win though, it was pretty close! Bet you were a little shaky at the end though.

I worked with an Eagles fan for a few years, and I still keep in touch with him sometimes. After a first half last week where Kevin Kolb stunk up the joint and then got knocked out and Vick nearly won the game, this eagles fan texted me saying Clay Matthews ruined the Eagles' season.