NFL 2011 Season Week 10 Picks

some thoughts on the Packers defense:
The Packers bad defense has been ridiculed and brushed aside all at the same time. On one hand, except for the Atalnta game where they trailed until late in the first half, and the Vikings and Panthers where they trailed right away, they have been ahead in all of their games for most of the game. And knowing that the Packers will score quickly at any time in the game, teams are forced to air it out early and often. So, the bad defensive passing numbers are in part because teams always half to throw the ball against the Packers. It's still no excuse.

The Packers are also reeling from the loss of Nick Collins. Collins was the primary play caller in the secondary, and now with him gone, they are left to 2 very inexperienced safteys, 1 cornerback nursing a sore shoulder all season (williams), and another cornerback that is getting a step or two slower every year (woodson). The chargers game highlighted the most glaring weakness in the secondary which seems to be communcation. You don't even have to analyse game film to see this; it's obvious in realtime! On three plays against the Chargers, a saftey and a cornerback both bit either on playaction or the cornerback release the receiver to the reciever, only to have safety fall off of coverage not anticipating the cornerback releasing. They say that these kinds of things are correctable, but we'll have to see. Another thing compounding the problem is probably the loss of Cullen Jenkins. The Packers have very little pass rush from the inside, so Matthews is constantly facing double teams at the outside. According to Bob McGinn (milwaukee journal sentinal writer), Matthews is having a fine year even without the sack totals (which McGinn thinks are a little overrated anyway). Mcginn says that Matthews produces enough hurries and qb hits to essentially cause the same end result as a sack in a lot of cases.

Historically (and by that I mean over the past three season), The Packers have gotten stronger in the 2nd half of each season, and notably Capers' defense has gotten more creative and stronger as well. In 2009, the Packers started the season 4-4 and were doing terrible on defense. After a team meeting where Woodson essential begged Capers to let him blitz more, they changed their defensive philosophy that year and finished the season 11-5 before losing in the playoffs. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but obviously something needs to be done.

Game plan wise I except some improvement yet since they have a good coach but missed the preseason. I think the single biggest problem is the lack of pass rush when only rushing 4. Opposing teams can't throw long passes unless they are getting time in the pocket.

Mcginn's q&a with fans started like this today:

Q: Bob L., Milwaukee, WI - Hello Bob McGinn, I'm wondering, can the Packers win a Super Bowl with this defense? Can they make it through the playoffs giving up 300+ passing yards a game, having to rely on forcing turnovers to stay competitive? I know it's hard to project and that all the problems the Packers suffer are correctable, but still I feel that if the Pack were to play, say, Baltimore, next week on a neutral field, I don't see them winning. Even with an otherworldly Rodgers leading a studded offense, that Baltimore D looks championship-caliber. Ours...leaves a little to be desired.
A: Bob McGinn - Bob L: Let's get started ... Yes, they can win a championship with these defensive players. Maybe not the way they're playing right now, but given their track records and projected improvement they can. It's about a team. The Packers will outscore most people. Coming bad weather will protect them against the pass. And this defense takes the ball away, which is an often neglected part of the defensive equation. Not by me. Yes, by me 15 to 20 years. Not anymore. Takeaways are not luck. I was dead wrong about that years ago. I learned my lesson.

One thing I've noticed is that the Packers secondary is extremely aggressive, and it hurts them often on the yardage portion of the stat sheet, because they do get burned a lot. But their aggression does a couple of things. It produces interceptions--they have now intercepted at least 2 passes in 5 consecutive games. It leaves them open to the big play. The aggression isn't the sole cause of the big play, but when you are aggressive and poor at communicating/anticipating your teammates moves, it compounds it. Fix the communication portion, and you will not only improve your big play defense, but you won't sacrifice your turnover producing tendencies. (it is amazing how much panic there is from a fanbase whose team is 8-0).

Rufio better make a pick for the Saints Falcons game, I don't want to win this season on a technicality!

Well, to be fair, this means we could go 8-8.

Whoops!

P.S. YAY for Turkey legs!

Whew, thank you ESPN for letting me know there is a Thursday night game.

I think my reasoning for half of my picks is well, any given Sunday...

Nope, my week 10 picks were no good.

Oh No! I am dropping :'(

Sarah... Please pick poorly next week!!!

That's not how I roll, all I do is know how to win...

67% of the time.