NFL 2012 Season Week 13 Picks

Ba bump!

So happy that Pittsburgh got a much needed victory

For all of Mason Crosby's struggles this year, 6 of his 9 misses have been from beyond 50 yards. So for the sake of argument, if you eliminate his 50+ yard attempts, he's 14-17 on all other attempts (82.4%). That's nothing to celebrate, but it may also mean that there's no reason to panic.* Still, kickers should still be relied on to make 50 yarders better than 1 out of 7. But absent an obvious upgrade of a replacement, Crosby is the guy the Packers are going to keep using, and my guess is that he figures out his woes before the season is over. His last 2 field goals (including a 47 yarder) were right down the middle yesterday, so maybe he already has.

*Perhaps it has something to do with McCarthy's seeming insistance on kicking 58 yard field goals to the end the first half of each game.

Now time for my 3rd quarter analysis, since the season is 75% complete.

At the begnning of the season, I had predicted the Packers to go 14-2, with losses to the 49ers and Giants. Other than a controversial loss to the Seahawks that Vegas returned my money for (that's if I had actually put money on it), I've only been wrong on one game. Now, based on their 8-4 record, I'm predicting a 12-4 finish and the number 2 seed in the NFC.

The Packers have 4 winnable games left. They play Detroit at home, and then at Chicago who they beat handily earlier in the season. Tennessee should be a cakewalk at home, and then they play at Minnesota. Oddly enough, I think the Minnesota game could be their biggest challenge, but the Packers played a very imperfect game against the Vikings yesterday (aided by Minnesota making at least a couple crucial bonehead plays; really, it was a game the Vikings should have/could have won) and still won by 9.

The 49ers are the team that stands in the Packers way for the number 2. They have two road games left against the Patriots and the Seahawks, and these two teams are a combined 9-1 at home this year. You have to imagine that they will lose 1 of those games. If the 49ers go 3-1, they'll finish with a record of 11-4-1. If the Packers win out, they'll finish 12-4 and will overtake the 49ers for the number 2 seed in the NFC. So let it be done so let it be written!

That does actually make it sound better, but he did kickoff out of bounds too.

Bad call on the roughing the passer interception was a huge play, but Ponder played like garbage except for their one drive so I can't say that game in Minnesota is the biggest worry. Historically Cutler absolutely falls apart against the Packers but if he manages to hold it together once I think an outdoor Dec game in Chicago could be the toughest remaining game.

The Vikings should return the favor from signing all those ex-Packers over the last decade and send Peterson over to GB.

I'm generally one to support a guy to the very end, especially in a situation where there isn't a likely obvious solution (like an obvious replacement kicker). But even I had my face in my hands when Crosby missed the entire field of play on his kickoff.

I'll admit that the roughing the passer call was weak (although not necessarily inconceivable), but I've certainly seen worse RTP calls than that (remember the roughing the passer call against the Packers in the drive of the Seahawks game, which also took away a would-be game ending interception, the one that Packer fans weren't allowed to complain about because "you can't touch the quarterback"*? The hit on Rodgers yesterday was a lot more deserving of a flag than the hit on Wilson, although both were probably questionable at best) In fact, there were probably worse hits on QBs for both teams that weren't called throughout yesterdays game. That call just stood out because it happened on a play where the Vikings caused a turnover, and thus negated what could have been a huge momentum swing. But to respond to Jon's tweet more appropriately, the Packers have only benefitted from 2 roughing the passer calls all season, so I would say that it's certainly not a penalty, nor has it ever been one, to tackle the Packers quarterback, especially if the hit is after the ball is thrown, is high, and involves a forceful, unecessary extension of the arms to shove said quarterback to the ground (again, unecessarily).

The reason I might say the Minnesota game is a worry is because the Vikings were in a position to win the game on at least a couple situations. That being said, I think the Packers have a pretty easy schedule, so it's not surprising that we can't come up with a conclusive "biggest worry" game, since all 4 should be relative cakewalks.

*correction, the RTP call was the 2nd to last drive, but it would have given the Packers the ball at the Seahawks 26 yard line up by 6 points.