NFL 2013 Season Week 1 Picks

Make your picks people! It's officially football season!

As bad as the Packers were in the playoff game last year, and as good as the 49ers defense was/is, the Packers still scored 21 points in the first half and 35 points overall. In that context, their defense isn't that scary. The Packers lost that game on account of their inability to handle the read option, not on account of the 49ers crushing defense. This game will be an instant test of whether the Packers have done enough to address the issues they had with mobile quarterbacks and strong running games.

I'll make my official point that among pickers with at least 1500 career picks, I have the highest winning percentage.

With that said, I'll give you a broad, high level summary of how I think the Packers will do this year.

I'm predicting the Packers will go 12-4. They will lose to the 49ers, Ravens, Vikings (on the road), and the Giants. They will go 4-4 on the road and 8-0 at home. The game I'm most torn about is the week 2 matchup against the Redskins in Green Bay. I'm predicting a win, but a lot of it depends on how RG3 looks in week one.

Disclaimer: I reserve the right make weekly picks independent of my stated season predictions.

I don't suppose it's relevant on the "Green Bay got screwed on the offsetting penalties" play where Matthews did his best to take the "dirtiest player in the division" title away from Suh, that Staley's "retaliation" seems to be "going in there and getting punched twice by Matthews," making it incredibly fortunate that it was offsetting at all. Not to mention we don't know they wouldn't go for it on 4th and short...which McCarthy obviously figured they would do as he accepted the penalty that lead to everything in the first place.

Nope, not relevant. Misapplying the rules would result in a game plate under protest in baseball. The packers turned down a 4th and inches. This play would have been 4th and 2.

Well, I agree that the mis-enforcement of rules is worse. Which is why what happened, twice, in the 49er/Vikings game last year with timeouts were both a worse officiating blunder than the "Fail mary" later. However, seeing as Matthews earned himself 2 flags and an ejection on that play, I'd say it's a little relevant that Staley getting called with any penalty, undoing Matthew's boneheaded takedown, was pretty lucky, if you're going to argue the Packers got screwed. That said, I expect them to bring it up an additional 33 more times in the broadcast.

I resent that. All my takedowns are quite logical.

Matthews'

Late edit: The "retaliation":
http://l3.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/R_NM7_uSBdhAJ4sQSs_C9g--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTUwMA--/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/sports/2013-09-08/017bc1a6-c013-4142-aef4-52f00c482ad2_cmfight.gif

Wow, sounds like I missed a lot while taking my nap.
Also, I checked, it is "Kaepernick."

Matthews did nothing worthy of ejection. Staley rushed Matthews and practically lifted him up by his jersey. Anything after that was just typical pushing and shoving.

"Pushing him" in the face at least twice, with release and momentum, at least once.

While being hoisted by the jersey. I'm watching the Dvr of it right now.

In other news, is it just me or does the yellow on the Vikings jersey not match the yellow on their helmets.

There's a link right above. Doesn't exactly scream "flag the guy in red."

The black border on the helmet makes it hard to tell.

that link also only shows a small portion of the scrum. And, who knows if staley was actually the guy who they threw the flag on anyway. Sometimes they see a lot of pushing and shoving that warrants a flag, and then just assign the penalty to someone who was in the middle. Boldin came sprinting from the far side of the field and started getting into it with a guy too. Look, there's no question Matthews' move was stupid (although to compare it to a neck stomp or a junk shot a la Suh is absurd), and the packers caught a break by the 49ers being equally stupid, so I'm not all that broken up by the whole thing. The point is, the 49ers caught a break too by the refs screwing up the rule (remember, sometimes "catching a break" goes both ways). Most likely, the 49ers would have kicked a field goal on 4th and a long 2 (vs the 4th and inches that Packers turned down, since Harbaugh probably would have gone for it there and probably would have made it), and the complexion of the game would have changed. Instead of being up 14-7, it would have been 10-7. In the end did it cost the Packers the game? No. But it certainly made a difference in how the rest of the game played out.

And if it wasn't obvious, I take exception to comparing Clay Matthews to Ndamukong Suh based on one late hit where Matthews actually left his feet before the QB was out of bounds. I'm not defending his decision, but Suh has a long resume of cheap, blantly dirty plays both during play and after the whistle. So, I'll wait for your retraction.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/84892/a-convenient-but-fair-solution-for-nfl - Vindicated?

First of all, it was mostly tongue-in-cheek. Secondly no, that wasn't what happened. He was all kinds of way the hell out of bounds.

Third, even if it was true that his leap was too far in motion he could have done something other than reach out and wrap up to complete the flying WWE style clothesline takedown.

How about them Eagles?!?! Not many people saw that one coming. I loved watching the Eagles shred what most people are calling the best team in the nfc east. Hopefully we can keep it up.....

Remember when "best team in the NFC East" was a compliment? Good times.

They really need to come up with a shorter name to replace Redskins.