NFL 2015 Season Week 4 Picks

A reasonable portion of my personage can't quite figure out how the Packers are 8 point favorites on the road against the 49ers (not that the Packers can't beat the 49ers by that much, just that it seems odd that odds-makers would think so to). Frankly, I don't think the Packers are that incredibly unbeatable. But perhaps moreso I am severely underestimating just how far the 49ers have fallen. The x-factor in this game is still whether or not the Packers can contain Colin Kaepernick. Over the past several years, despite the improvements in their defense as a whole, they still tend to give up large amounts of yardage to QBs who are willing and able to scramble and run. Even how dominant the Packers were against the Seahawks in the first half (particularly against the run), they pretty much got torched by Russell Wilsons legs in the 3rd quarter, nearly costing them the game. The Seahawks are a much better team all around than the 49ers, but if the game is within 2 scores in the 2nd half, it only takes a handful of big plays against what seems to chronically be their biggest weakness to make the game all to interesting. On the other hand, the 49ers defense doesn't scare me at all. I would guess the Packers put about 38 points in this game. Defensive concerns aside, I predict the Packers win by more than 8 points.

Luckily for the Packers and everyone else (though it evidently didn't help the Vikings) the 49ers have done to Colin the same thing that happens to every "break the mold" qb/player. AKA, the coaches/team inexplicably forgets why they chose that player and what they're good at, and cram them into what we decided in 1967 the position "should" look like. Forget that he took the league by storm and made you a top 5 team from the moment he took over, he'll only be a good QB if he can play like Dan Marino. Of course it IS riskier to have your QB running all over and taking hits, but seems like you should rather have a guy torching people with his talents 10 games a season than being hot garbage 16 games a season doing the exact opposite of what makes him special.

Cordarrelle Patterson scored a TD like every 4th time he was given the ball, but we're sick of manufacturing touches for a guy we specifically took knowing he was a project as a traditional WR, so he'll rot on the bench until he earns a spot with traditional route running.

Kaep also has a new coach that wasn't the guy in charge of making that decision. I don't know if his downfall started last year or not, but the new guy might not be as adept at tailoring an offense around a somewhat unconventional quarterback.

Although, Trent Dilfer thought he was pretty alright during that week 1 Monday night game. Or did he? I can't remember what he was saying over all the yelling.

The risk is the reason, even you win all 10 games your running QB plays in, what happens in week 1 of the playoffs when he's out?

Also, he's on the same pace as the last two years as far as rushing attempts. Problem is he has 5 TOs already.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14001/colin-kaepernick

Probably better on the whole than not making them.

I guess maybe the aren't being successful at it, of perhaps a passing QB that can run is totally different than a running qb that passes, for reasons that don't show up in the stats.

The mere fact that they've made it clear that's what they want it a little odd to me. You know who was pretty good at what you apparently want? Alex Smith.

I wonder who ultimately was responsible for making the call to go with Kaep and forego any promise about Alex Smith. I know the 49ers have a GM and a president, but how influential was Jim Harbaugh in all this?

Trade the older more expensive QB for an extra draft pick, use the cap room to sign free agents while the young QB gets paid peanuts (relatively). Seems pretty straight forward.

It's not like Alex Smith is putting up Pro Bowl caliber seasons. QBR for 2013-2015 seasons
Smith 50 - 55 - 23
Kaepernick 66 - 60 - 48